The Apc May Be Setting Itself Up For An Implosion; The Tinubu/osinbajo Dilemma:

This article examines the power tussle in the APC, between the Vice president; Prof. Yemi Osinbajo, and the Former Governor of Lagos state; Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu. It also examines the perceived consequences this political bout would have on the stability of the APC.

There's a popular cliche derived from the bible; that goes thus: "can two work together except they agree?". Although the original bible verse, Amos 3:3 reads, " How can two work together unless they are agreed?" This is, perhaps, the question several APC stalwarts, members, and sympathizers alike are beginning to ask each other following the Vice President's decision to officially throw his weight into the race to become Nigeria's president. Since his declaration, a lot of eyebrows have been raised, and the political commentaries have continued to pour in, even though his declaration should not come as a surprise. 

I remember vividly, in 2015, when President Muhammadu Buhari was garnering support in the southwest to become Nigeria's president, one of the arguments raised by his supporters was the idea that after his tenure expired, his southwestern Vice president, Professor Yemi Osinbajo, would continue from wherever he stopped. 

However, this narrative took an unlikely twist when the former governor of Lagos state and Jagaban of Borgu, Bola Ahmed Tinubu, declared his intention to become Nigeria's next president in 2023. Consequently, this had caused a dichotomy between the supporters of the Jagaban and that of the Vice president, Prof. Yemi Osinbajo.

While Tinubu's supporters were quick to remind the public of how their principal had given the Vice president his political career and relevance, including engineering his emergence as Vice president in 2015, the supporters of Prof. Yemi Osinbajo maintained that the very cerebral professor of law had shown capacity to lead and manage the affairs of the country come 2023, and that age was on his side. 

Another argument of Tinubu's supporters is that the Jagaban has the wherewithal to achieve his ambition; they claim that his king-making capabilities which have earned him a lot of loyal political office holders, as well as his enormous financial strength, put him in a favorable position against any candidate even the Vice president, whom they consider to be a political son to the Jagaban. 

On the other hand, the Professor's camp emphasizes his brilliance and political dexterity as vice president, which they believe has earned him a lot of supporters and friends across the Nigerian political class. They see these as a major proponent of the vice president fulfilling his ambition. They have also absolved the vice president of any blame over the blatant failure of President Muhammadu Buhari's administration to deliver on the majority of its promises, to improve the living conditions of Nigerians in 2015 and 2019, respectively. 

However, there has been speculation that PMB had opted for an Igbo successor if the presidency was to move from the North of the country to the South. If this were true, then the political ambition of both political 'father' and 'son' may be jeopardized. 

While it is left to be seen if any of the camps would throw in the towel in what looks like about that would go down the wire, the impact would be felt by the political party that houses both men and their supporters. As the party could well be heading towards a major political crisis that could engender its collapse if the political ambitions of both party's strongmen are not handled with care and caution. 

There is also the matter of zoning the presidency to the southeast, and several southeastern politicians within the party have shown interest; Rochas Okorocha, former governor of Imo state; Orji Uzor Kalu, former governor of Abia state; Dave Umahi, the incumbent governor of Ebonyi state and Rotimi Ameachi, former governor of Rivers state and current minister of transportation, have all signaled interest in occupying the top office in 2023. 

As Harold Lasswell rightly opined in his book "Politics, who gets what, when and how," he stated, " influential are those who get the most of what there is to get." The question that begs to be answered is whether the influential within the APC would get the most of what there is to get at the expense of the party.

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